Discover more from The Real Signal - Real Estate + Macro - By Scott Choppin
The Real Signal #53 - Inflation Accelerated to 7.4% Annualy
Inflation Accelerated to 7.4% Annualy
“For the second month in a row, inflation is rising again.
Fresh BLS numbers say inflation accelerated again, to a 7.4% annual rise. Driven by energy, food, and rent.
Core remained stuck above 4% — marking 2 years now for this “transitory” inflation of ours.
Between drought in Kansas, withering domestic energy, and trillion dollar deficits all the way to $50 trillion, there’s a lot more to come.
Washington’s drunkest sailors will do all they can to spend, and strangle, our way to permanent inflation.”
California Has 4th ‘Stickiest’ Population In US
“Many of my long-time readers know I have an odd fascination with trying to explain why there’s really no California exodus.
My thesis is based on math that shows ex-Californians are proportionally a small share of the state’s population. I’m well aware that my “no exodus” argument runs against conventional wisdom that’s based on statistics tracking California’s nationally leading number of residents exiting. But those figures overlook California being the most-populated state in the US.
So, I was thrilled to see a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ranking states by the “stickiness” of their population. Stickiness refers to percentage of residents of a state who were born there.
Dallas Fed economists found California was the fourth “stickiest” state with 73% of its residents being native-born. Who knew? Wink!
No. 1 was Texas at 82.2%, then came North Carolina (75.5%), and Georgia (74.2%). Following California was Utah (72.9%) and Florida (72.7%). Let me call them the “sticky six.” (Note: For those seeing a political spin in that group, stop – the four least-sticky places were also “red” states: Wyoming at 45.3%, North Dakota at 48.6%, Alaska at 48.7%, and South Dakota at 54.2%.)
And the Dallas Fed double-checked population loyalty by also eyeing migration data similar to my own reporting – looking at the share of residents leaving for other states in 2021.
California tied at 11th lowest with sticky six members Georgia and Florida with exits equalling 2.1% of their population. Texas was No. 1 at 1.5%. The exit share in North Carolina and Utah ranked 18th at 2.3%.”
The Two Fastest-Growing Types Of Built-For-Rent Multifamily
“There are two product types that are gaining share within the built-for-rent single-family (”BTR”) space, being 1) horizontal apartment communities, and, 2) townhome communities. These are the two categories of BTR that are growing fastest, evidenced by the numbers of units reaching completion, and also based on our book of market study business. Of course, traditional single-family developments (full-sized homes on individual lots) are coming out of the ground in large numbers as well, but the fastest growth right now is in these two “denser” categories.
The exhibit below shows the ranking of the top markets for BTR townhomes, which comprise another popular and rapidly-growing segment for rentals. Townhomes have comprised more than 35% of our BTR market study work. They differ from horizontal apartments in that they are not detached, but they often have garages, which appeal to many renters (and they usually offer more interior space as well).“